Leading questions on Lisbon

The headline figures in Monday's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll look quite good - 54% yes, 28% no and 18% don't know. Unfortunately experience from previous referendums show that:

• the yes vote always decreases during the actual campaign and
  
• most of the don't knows will become nos on polling day (I'd say about three fourths).

At the moment my bet is that the real figure is much more like a 55-45 split, which is hardly a huge margin, particularly given there's still five months to go. The real problem, however, is really the question, not the answer but the question:

"In light of the commitment to allow Ireland to retain an EU Commissioner under the Lisbon Treaty, along with legal guarantees to deal with other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation will you vote Yes or No in the second referendum on the treaty later in the Year?"

The obvious catch is that much of the debate during October's referendum with doubtlessly concern whether or not the promises and guarantees offered to the government are really legally binding at all. Leading questions tend to result in the desired answers and the Times have left themselves wide open to getting the poll result they wanted.

Against this we can say that a great many people probably ignore the actual wording of the question and just indicate which side of the debate they're currently on. Put another way: supporters of Youth Defence (just an example) will probably say they will vote no, regardless of how the question is put, as the have already made up their minds.

It's all very well and good to second guess the polls, but a simple "Lisbon: Yes or No" would have saved us all the trouble.