Verhofstadt for President?

All in all the European Parliamentary elections were reasonably predictable: the Christian Democrats remain the largest group in Parliament, but no group has overall control. Before the elections a great many left-wingers — including Commission Vice-President Margot Wallstrom — were hoping the European Socialist Party would nominate an alternative candidate to current Commission President Manuel Barroso. But European Socialist Party big-wigs decided against this, knowing full well that a thumping majority of member states are led by centre-right governments.

This notwithstanding, it has been reported that Socialist leader, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, is currently doing the rounds trying to gather support for former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt. But frankly the odds on a Verhofstadt Commission must be pretty high! The Socialists, already the behind the Christian Democrats in the out-going Parliament received a drubbing by voters in the election. If the incoming Commission President should reflect the results of the Parliamentary elections, Barroso has the better claim to that position.

That being said, Barroso isn't a done deal and in the past, when the Commission President was decided solely by member states, early front runners had a habit of being beaten by compromise candidates. So could Verhofstadt, a Liberal, be that compromise candidate? Hardly! Verhofstadt's problem is that is too federalist for his own good. He was mentioned for Commission President before and rejected for this very reason. Barroso, on the other hand enjoys the support of his own party, the Christian Democrats and Europe's largest centre-left governments: Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom.

That the European Parliament is hung is no guarantee that Barroso won't have the numbers on the day. He had them the last time in not altogether dissimilar circumstances.